Why has the price of tungsten risen

As the topic of accelerating inflation dominates headlines, few notice that a revolution concerning strategic resources is quietly unfolding. At the heart of this transformation lies not precious metals like gold or silver, but an unassuming gray-black ore—tungsten. Through smelting and processing, this unremarkable stone transforms into the core material for missile engine nozzles, chip-etching tungsten filaments, and tank armor-piercing shells, becoming the indispensable “industrial teeth” of high-end manufacturing and national defense.

From a global resource perspective, the scarcity and strategic value of metallic tungsten are particularly prominent. Currently, the world's proven tungsten reserves amount to approximately 4.6 million tons. As the core supplier of tungsten resources globally, China holds an absolute dominant position: not only does it possess 52% of the world's reserves, but it also contributes 82% of annual production. Consequently, tungsten has been included in the EU's list of 34 critical raw materials and designated as a core resource among the U.S.'s 50 critical minerals. In contrast, the U.S. can only meet 15% of its domestic tungsten demand through domestic production. For high-end tungsten products like military alloys, it relies entirely on imports. Historically, China supplied 32% of these imports, creating a supply-demand imbalance that sets the stage for future market volatility.

Since 2025, the tungsten market has witnessed a historic surge. Data reveals that tungsten-gold ore prices have soared from 143,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 201,100 yuan per ton, with APT (ammonium paratungstate) prices exceeding 320,000 yuan per ton and tungsten powder prices reaching as high as 480,000 yuan per ton. The entire industry chain has seen an overall increase of approximately 48%, with both prices and growth rates hitting unprecedented highs. This surge was no accident. It resulted from the convergence of four forces—supply chain contraction, explosive demand, policy regulation, and market hoarding—creating a “resource storm.”

On the supply chain side, China's Ministry of Natural Resources allocated only 58,000 tons of tungsten ore mining quotas for 2025—a 6.5% year-on-year decrease. Major producing regions saw reductions: Jiangxi cut its quota by 2,370 tons, while low-grade mining areas in Hubei and Anhui received near-zero allocations, directly tightening raw material supply. Demand, however, is surging across multiple sectors: In the photovoltaic industry, the penetration rate of tungsten-coated diamond wire will jump from 20% in 2024 to 40% in 2025, driving global demand to over 4,500 tons. In the new energy vehicle sector, adding tungsten to lithium battery cathodes enhances energy density, driving consumption to 1,500 tons in 2025—a 22% year-on-year surge. Notably, China's nuclear fusion projects, including the under-construction Compact Fusion Energy Experimental Facility, are projected to demand over 10,000 tons of high-performance tungsten alloys.

Policy-level controls further intensified market tensions. In February 2025, China implemented “one order, one certificate” export controls on 25 types of tungsten products including ammonium paratungstate, causing exports to plummet by 25% in the first quarter. Simultaneously, stringent environmental regulations persisted, leading to the shutdown of 18 non-compliant mines due to tailings pond remediation and wastewater discharge upgrades. New capacity approvals were frozen, resulting in a 5.84% year-on-year decline in tungsten ore production during the first half of the year. Furthermore, hoarding activities by intermediaries along the supply chain have added fuel to the fire. Current stockpiles have reached 40,000 metric tons, accounting for over 35% of circulating tungsten ore, significantly widening the market supply-demand gap.

The strategic value of tungsten has long transcended that of ordinary industrial metals, becoming a pivotal bargaining chip in great power rivalry. From a purely defense perspective, a single tungsten carbide armor-piercing projectile boasts a density of 15.8 grams per cubic centimeter, capable of effortlessly penetrating half-meter-thick armor, causing steel plates to shatter like butter under a hot knife. The U.S. defense sector consumes over 6,000 tons of tungsten annually, with half of its weapons production lines reliant on tungsten materials. Should the supply chain break, manufacturing of M1A1 tank shells and AGM-158 missiles would grind to a halt. The Pentagon has even classified a potential tungsten supply cutoff from China as a top-tier “red risk,” predicting that F-35 fighter jet production lines would cease operations within 18 months if such a cutoff were enforced.

Faced with such severe supply chain dependence, why haven't Europe and the United States rebuilt their domestic tungsten supply chains? The data provides the answer: rebuilding would take over 15 years and require an investment of 200 billion euros. In reality, China's dominance over tungsten resources extends far beyond the superficial advantage of holding the world's largest reserves. It has established a comprehensive industrial chain barrier spanning mining and beneficiation, smelting and processing, deep processing, export controls, and the export of technical standards. This has enabled China to achieve comprehensive leadership from industrial layout to international rule-setting.

This “war without gunpowder” over tungsten resources is reshaping the power landscape of high-end manufacturing in the 21st century. As the strategic importance of resources grows increasingly prominent, whoever commands the authority over core resources will gain the upper hand in future global industrial competition.